11 December 2024

Israel versus Iranian sponsored Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi and terrorist cells in Syria, Iraq and in the West Bank.

Iran v Saudi Arabia

Underlying Middle East politics and sponsored terrorism, particularly the series of events from 7 October 2023 onwards, has been the efforts of Iran to wrest the leadership of Islam from Saudi Arabia. However Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Persian Gulf states quietly sat back hoping that Iran would be weakened through the failures of its acolytes.

Iran’s tentacles. 

Over several decades Iran built a threatening network with its tentacles seemingly having Israel in a vice-like grip. There was a belief that Israel was deterred from striking Iran because it had armed the Hezbollah militia in Southern Lebanon with enough rockets and missiles to destroy much of Israel’s infrastructure.

Meanwhile Israel had been strengthening its relations with the Arab states not aligned with Iran and had been moving closer to upgrading relations with Saudi Arabia. This may have been the catalyst for Hamas’s atrocities of 7 October. It is likely that Iran sanctioned the Hamas atrocities in an attempt to head off an Israel diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia and hoping to inflame the Islamic world in a Jihad against Israel. If so, it miscalculated badly.

Hezbollah let off the leash. Israel’s counter blow.

Hezbollah was unleashed by Iran on the day following the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023. However, Israel’s Mossad had contrived a masterful intelligence operation. This involved a company—purporting to represent the manufacturer—selling thousands of Taiwanese Apollo-branded secure paging devices to Hezbollah to replace mobile telephones which Hezbollah believed to be insecure. These devices had small but potent explosives embedded in them. Their size was explained as containing a larger longer life rechargeable battery. A charging cable was supplied. Hezbollah distributed the pagers to as many as 3,000 of its officers and rear echelon personnel. On receipt of a codeword the carriers of these devices held them in their hands expecting an encrypted message but their devices exploded injuring hands, fingers and faces. Hundreds of devices exploded simultaneously injuring several levels of Hezbollah’s command and control structure. Another lot were set off separately some being carried in pockets or belt attachments. A lesser number of walkie talkie devices issued to senior Hezbollah personages were similarly exploded.

Israel had also identified the whereabouts of senior Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and dropped a 1,000-pound bomb into a house killing Hezbollah’s supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah. It has killed a number of others, including a direct strike on a room in a secure multi-story building in Iran’s capital Tehran. Israel’s air force made successful attacks on many Hezbollah buildings and missile storages across Southern Lebanon eliminating much of its capacity. It had learned from its mistakes of an earlier period when its land operation against Hezbollah led to significant losses in the rugged terrain of Lebanon which favored defenders. This time, a carefully built intelligence picture of the disposition of Hezbollah and its missile stores led to effective targeting by Israel’s air force.

Iran suffers crushing blows.

Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran has suffered crushing blows. According to Israel sources in its April strike on Iran, Israel destroyed one of four Russian supplied S-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries guarding Tehran and then destroyed the remaining three batteries in its October 26 attack. Israel’s US supplied strike aircraft including its JSF 35’s can penetrate Iran’s airspace with near impunity. Israel is reported as having damaged Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities, its ability to produce solid fuel for missiles and destroyed equipment used to create the explosives which surround uranium in a nuclear device acting as a trigger. It has possibly set back Iran’s development of a nuclear capability.

Iran lacks a modern air force due to its isolation from 1980 onwards. It is now demonstrably defenseless against attack by Israel’s formidable air force. 

The US role. 

Close coordination with the United States has been interpreted as the reason for Israel deciding not to attack Iran’s oil export facilities which are vulnerable.

A successful attack on a deeply embedded Houthi weapons storage by a large deep penetrating bomb dropped by a B 2 stealth bomber flown from a base in the US had the dual benefit of signaling to Iran that the US could destroy its deeply embedded nuclear development site.

The US remains hopeful of an eventual replacement of Iran’s hardline clerical regime with a freer system of government. There is evidence that lots of Iranians would like to be free from the tyrannical rule of the religious regime. Israel’s attacks have carefully avoided the civilian population.

A series of blows to Iran’s influence.

·      Israel’s actions against Hamas in Gaza continue while up to 100 of its citizens remain prisoner (if they still live) deep in the tunnel networks. Iran is unable to resupply Hamas and has lost the ability to influence the outcome.

·      Iran was unable to stop Hezbollah agreeing to a ceasefire and agreeing to withdraw to positions North of the Litani River. Hezbollah has agreed to a joint US and French guarantee of the agreement which favors Israel.

·      The Houthis have had a deep weapons storage destroyed by American penetrating bombs plus other facilities destroyed by US, British and Israel air strikes including on its fuel storages and have been checked.  The Houthi’s are considered to be a serious pest by Saudi Arabia which ships oil through the Red Sea and by Egypt whose Suez Canal revenue is threatened by the diversion of shipping around the Cape of Good Hope. Their involvement creates a bigger gap between Iran and the moderate Arab states. They will bring further destruction upon themselves if they persist in their activity.

Syrian rebels recapturing much of its territory from the Assad regime. 

In a separate development Turkish supported Syrian rebels were welcomed as they reentered the northern city of Aleppo followed by the collapse of the Assad regime city by city. The Syrian leader, the odious Bashar Al-Assad, who has been supported by Russia and Iran to Moscow and been granted asylum by Russia. Due to the speed of the Assad regimes collapse and its war in Ukraine, Russia was unable offer significant support to the Assad regime nor did Iran or Hezbollah help to offer the regime given their involvement elsewhere. The rebels moved on quickly to other Syrian cities as the Assad regime collapsed. Turkey had been careful to keep a tight leash on the rebels until the point at which neither Iran nor Russia was in a position to offer significant assistance to the Assad regime.

The bigger question is what happens following the collapse of the Assad regime in most of Syria? The rebel groups which appear to be a loose coalition of some previously toxic elements have initially shown friendly faces but the history of many middle east countries is one of alternating repressive regimes.

A piece of Australian history.

For the historically minded in 1918 The Desert Mounted Corps of 18,000 soldiers, the majority of which were Australian Light Horse, advanced against the retreating Turkish army the Australian Mounted division of which was ordered to surround Damascus. The 10th Australian Light Horse Regiment under the temporary command of Major Arthur Olden, a West Australian dentist, was ordered to secure the North city gate and led the regiment through Damascus whereupon the city authorities surrendered to him and Turkish troops laid down their weapons. In due course the high command arrived as Olden’s regiment rode on. Several days later the much-overrated Lawrence of Arabia, a British intelligence officer, led Arab tribes into the city. 

Overall Middle East situation.

Taken overall, the situation of its surrogates Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria indicate that strategically a huge loser is Iran which has lost enormous influence in the region.

Russia too is a loser as it’s continued occupation by its navy and air force of a Syrian naval base and airfield appears to be at risk. With the passage to the Black Sea controlled by Turkey and its Black Sea Fleet seriously reduced by Ukraine the ability of Russia to mount a significant naval presence in the Mediterranean is no longer viable. It is now difficult to see the Russian air force being a significant force in the region. Turkey’s President Erdogan is no lover of Israel but depends on the US to equip his air force. When he purchased a Russian anti-aircraft system the US cancelled his order for its Joint Strike Fighter whose software must be kept secure from Russian anti-aircraft software. Turkey has since compromised by, reportedly, buying less sensitive US equipment. We are yet to see how Turkey’s leader influences Syria’s future.

The winner is Turkey (Turkiye) which has backed the Syrian rebels and in doing so expects to unburden itself of a significant number of Syrian refugees.

Hopefully there can be an end to Hamas in the near future and the freeing of its prisoners. If so the possibility of a significant period of peace in the region may open up. 

Antisemitic attacks in Australia.

Since the 7 October atrocities committed by Hamas there has been a series of attacks on Australia’s Jewish community culminating in the firebombing of a Melbourne synagogue. The Australian government at the highest level has been too weak in dealing with these attacks beginning with the failure of the Prime Minister to promptly and forthrightly denounce the infamous anti-Jewish rally at the Sydney Opera House two days after Hamas’s atrocities of 7 October 2023. 

Australia’s history in the Middle East. 

In World War One, the Australian Light Horse was the biggest component of an Anzac, British and Indian mounted Corps commanded by the Australian General Harry Chauvel which was the spearhead of the advance of the British Army against the Ottoman Turks from the Suez Canal across the Northern Sinai from Romani, through Beersheba, the battles for Gaza, Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley, Northern Palestine, the capture of Damascus and finishing in the area of Syria now known as Lebanon when the war ended.

In World War Two the Australian 7th Division covered much of the same territory including battling the Vichy French, a German ally, in the area near the Litani River. My late father-in-law was a member of a field engineer unit which was a Corps Troops unit supporting the 7th Division.

Graham Middleton